Abstract| Volume 116, P73, December 2022

O16Contraceptive failure rates: New estimates for individual methods and method combinations

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      Typical-use failure rates describe the proportion of individuals expected to become pregnant should they use a contraceptive for a period of time such as one year. This study produced new estimates of contraceptive failure for more methods than past studies, and, for the first time, combinations of methods (“dual-use”).


      Estimates were based on data from the 2002, 2006–2010 and 2011–2015 National Surveys of Family Growth and the 2000, 2008 and 2014 Abortion Patient Surveys. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical hazard model to estimate how the odds of pregnancy vary by method, year, and duration of method use. Individuals were considered at risk of contraceptive failure during months in which they used a method and had intercourse.


      One-year failure rates ranged from an estimated 2.1% for the intrauterine device (IUD) to 13.4% for withdrawal. Estimates were 7.1% for the pill, 8.5% for the ring, 9.5% for condoms, 10.2% for the patch, and 11.8% for calendar methods, when these methods were used by themselves. Dual use substantially reduced failure rates for users of the pill, to 5.3–5.4%, and for users of calendar methods, to 6.9–8.4%, depending on whether they used withdrawal or condoms.


      These findings are in line with previous studies in their overall ranking of methods by effectiveness. Additionally, these new analyses find smaller differences in effectiveness between hormonal and coital-dependent methods compared with previous studies. In the post-Roe world, this information may become increasingly important to individuals having sex.
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